![[US Midterm Elections 2026] Now that the intraparty coalition supporting Trump has collapsed, what will the Republican Party do next?](/api/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fichef.bbci.co.uk%2Face%2Fws%2F240%2Fcpsprodpb%2Ffa4b%2Flive%2F74e0bf70-dae8-11f1-93e1-3b657b665bcf.jpg)
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Daniel Bush Washington Correspondent, Madeline Halpert
The coalition of intraparty forces that made Donald Trump the Republican presidential nominee for a third consecutive term has dramatically imploded in the 2026 midterm elections. This situation has left the Republicans in a situation where they have no choice but to look after themselves.
The shocking defeat in the midterm elections immediately left the Republican Party facing question marks about what the future of the party would be in the "post-Trump" era.
Will he stick to Trumpism, or will he try to forge a new path as a party in the final years of his term? Republicans have a choice to make, and there are no easy answers.
The seriousness of this problem was perfectly expressed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who will retire at the end of his term next January. The governor described the midterm elections as "nearly an extinction-level event for the Republican Party."
Others expressed a more optimistic view. Vice President J.D. Vance blamed the midterm election results on public anger over the war with Iran and argued that Republicans could turn things around. Still, Vance acknowledged that the outcome of this election should cause turmoil within the party.
"There's going to be a lot of infighting and bickering about what happened and why," the vice president said.
Mr. Trump's improbable rise to the Republican presidential nomination in 2016 caused deep divisions within the party. The cracks have not disappeared since then. The reaction of the right wing of the party to the results of this election once again highlights the deep rift within the party.
It remains to be seen which faction within the Republican Party will prevail. But while Republican officials are trying to heal their wounds, the intraparty conflict that Vance predicted has already begun.
"The party needs to decide whether it will continue to revolve around one person, one man, or whether it will center on various ideals, such as conservatism, so that it can win outside of the traditional Republican strongholds," Lina Shah, who is involved in developing the party's strategy, told the BBC.
The party's right-wing group known as "Never Trumpers," who opposed Trump in his first presidential election, are calling for a return to the pre-Trump Republican Party, citing a series of historic defeats across the country.
But it would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to return to the pre-Trump status quo.
The Republican Party has changed dramatically during Trump's decade as president. Most Republicans have moved to the right on domestic issues such as immigration and rejected the interventionist foreign policy of the George W. Bush administration that led to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
In Congress, the moderate mainstream within the party, which hated Trump from the beginning, has almost completely disappeared. In their place, conservative Trump supporters who echo Trump's xenophobia and populist rhetoric are on the rise.
That trend continued this year, with older Republicans who had long opposed Mr. Trump, such as Sen. John Cornyn of Texas and Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, losing office.
Three days after the election, Trump appointed Stephen Miller to replace Susie Wiles as chief of staff.
The move means Trump has no intention of softening his policies or message over the remainder of his term. Miller, a longtime supporter of Trump, is the president's top domestic policy adviser and is known for his hard-line immigration policies.
Steve Bannon, one of the founders of the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, predicted a "civil war" within the Republican Party after the midterm elections. After the election, he blamed the Republican Party's defeat on the economy and "wars overseas."
“I don’t think we have been able to implement the MAGA policy plan,” Bannon said, urging Trump to move forward with large-scale immigrant deportations.
But some Republican political strategists say the election results should have been a stark wake-up call for the MAGA movement's loyal supporters who hope it will continue beyond the end of the Trump administration.
"There are still a lot of MAGA supporters who have consistently supported Donald Trump through good times and bad," says Whit Ayers, one of those people. "But there are also a lot of Republicans who aren't MAGA, and they're now in the majority."
Should Republican candidates distance themselves from Trump?
This time, Republicans lost their majority in both houses of Congress. Moreover, he lost control of the governorship and state legislature in states like Texas and Kansas, states that Democrats had been losing for decades and that Trump had won by double-digit margins when he was the candidate.
This stunning upset once again showed how fluid support among different segments of the electorate is.
Mr. Trump expanded the support base of the Republican Party in the 2024 presidential election, increasing support from Latinos and young people. Republican officials hailed this as a harbinger of strength that will support the party's future.
Just two years later, Republicans have lost support in nearly every important vote field. Support among Latino voters for Democratic candidates increased by 29 points from 2024 to 2026, according to a New York Times analysis of voter data. Support among young people aged 18 to 29 increased by 33 points.
Polls before the midterm elections showed that many voters were dissatisfied with President Trump's economic policies, immigration policy, and handling of the war with Iran. The changes in voters mentioned above also reflect such dissatisfaction.
In addition, many voters believed that Trump's family and administration were riddled with dealings and corruption, and Democrats took advantage of this. The president's focus on the White House ballroom and various other construction projects in Washington also contributed to the impression among voters that he was more intent on building his own legacy than addressing people's cost of living issues.
Benjamin Schroeder, leader of the Young Republicans in Austin, Texas, agrees. Speaking to the BBC the morning after the Democratic Party's "blue wave" nearly wiped out the Republican Party in the state, Schroeder still seemed to have recovered from the shock.
After the election, President Trump's first public appearance was to talk about the White House banquet hall. Asked by the BBC for his thoughts on this, Mr Schroeder said Mr Trump remained a "dominant figure", but hesitated: "If it were me, I would focus on more important issues than banquet halls and renaming things and things like that."
Looking at the situation immediately after the midterm elections, it may be advantageous for the Republican Party to distance itself from Mr. Trump in the run-up to the 2028 presidential election.
“The favorite was supposed to be Vance, but now it could be anyone.”
Vice President Vance was forced to walk an extremely difficult tightrope in response to the results of the midterm elections, condemning the war with Iran and calling for a return to "America First." It was a very subtle critique of the current situation, in which he distanced himself from Mr. Trump on the unpopular war, but sought to position himself within a brand of politics that remains popular among his MAGA support base.
Republicans are sure to keep a close eye on what Trump will say about Iran and how it will affect the 2028 presidential election. An escalation of the conflict would exacerbate concerns that Mr. Vance and other America First advocates have voiced.
In posting an analysis of the election results on social media, Mr. Vance echoed a growing sentiment among the right wing of his party that America's support for Israel should be reconsidered. However, at the same time, he also expressed a positive attitude toward making some changes to the immigration enforcement policy. This contradicts the opinion of Miller, the aide who led immigration policy during the second Trump administration. Mr. Vance had previously been Mr. Miller's ally.
Vance's crushing defeat in the midterm elections has complicated his chances of winning the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, party strategists say.
``Prior to the midterm elections, J.D. Vance was the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, but now the nomination race is completely open to anyone,'' Ayers said.
Republican officials aiming to replace Trump still have time to think about what they should do. Still, a decision needs to be made in the near future. Those seeking to run for president in 2028 will be forced to announce their candidacies in the coming months. Some of them may start campaigning before the end of the year.
Mr. Vance's election analysis was widely interpreted as an unofficial announcement of his candidacy. The Republican primary is likely to be a hotly contested race.
In addition to Vance, other Republicans rumored to be running for president include Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Florida Governor DeSantis, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.
In the national elections in two years, Republican presidential and federal candidates alike will have to make tough decisions on key issues of the moment, including aid for Israel, tariffs, and the AI boom.
Although Trump's power may weaken over the remaining two years of his second term, there is no doubt that he will have the most say in the party for the next two years. It is unclear whether he will be deeply involved in the 2028 election or remain on the sidelines.
Mr. Trump has praised Mr. Vance and Mr. Rubio several times in the past, but has largely avoided saying who he would like to succeed him.
Who will President Trump support? This will be the biggest uncertainty for the 2028 Republican primary.
"It remains to be seen who will jump into that race," Ayers said.
"But I think it's going to be a much broader and more diverse lineup than we expected before the midterm elections."
(English article: The Trump coalition is shattered - what will Republicans do now?)
