Goldman Sachs: Potential selling pressure on S&P 500 futures in the next month reaches $45 billion
Bloomberg cited a Goldman Sachs model that estimated S&P 500 futures could face about $45 billion in potential selling pressure over the next month. After the U.S. stock market plummeted last week, the world […] Goldman Sachs: Potential selling pressure on S&P 500 index futures in the next month will reach US$45 billion> This article was first published in BlockTempo "Dongqu Dongzhi - the most influential blockchain news media".
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Bloomberg cited a Goldman Sachs model that estimated S&P 500 futures could face about $45 billion in potential selling pressure over the next month. After the sharp decline in U.S. stocks last week, global macro hedge funds have barely reduced their stock exposure, and index positions and option hedging may still amplify market volatility. (Previous summary: Goldman Sachs: Deleveraging is not over yet! CTA will lose 24.9 billion magnesium in the decline, and only corporate buybacks will support the market in August) (Background supplement: Investment science | What are Delta, Gamma, Vega, and Theta that traders often say? The concept of options privately held by institutions) U.S. stocks fell sharply last week, but the risk of concentrated positions has not completely subsided. A Bloomberg report on November 10 cited data from Goldman Sachs and pointed out that global macro hedge funds have barely cut their stock exposure; Goldman Sachs' systematic trading model estimates that S&P 500 index futures may face about $45 billion in potential selling pressure in the next month. This round of market adjustment has seen two different changes in holdings: retail investors and hedge funds focusing on individual stocks have reduced their exposure, while macro funds have generally retained their original stock exposure. The sell-off of individual stocks does not mean that the market positions established through the index have also been reduced simultaneously. Net sales of individual stocks hit four-month high, but macro products were bought Goldman Sachs prime brokerage data showed that global macro hedge funds did not significantly reduce their stock exposure when the S&P 500 index recorded its worst weekly performance since 2025. Last week's decline caused some concentrated positions to loosen, but it did not let all types of funds exit the market at the same time. Bloomberg quoted Goldman Sachs as saying that last week, the scale of net selling of individual stocks by hedge funds reached the highest level in four months; technology stocks were the sector with the highest concentration of net selling in the global and U.S. markets. In contrast, macro products such as stock indices and index stock funds (ETFs) recorded net purchases during the same period. Macro funds mainly express their judgment on the direction of the economy and market through stock index futures, ETFs and exchange contracts. These tools carry overall market exposure. Once funds adjust their positions in a concentrated manner, the impact may be directly reflected in the major stock indexes, and not just limited to certain technology stocks. Systematic models estimate potential sales of approximately $28 billion in the coming week. Another risk comes from systematic strategies that adjust positions based on trading signals. Bloomberg cited a model tracked by Goldman Sachs as pointing out that about 60% of global stock markets have seen negative trading signals, which may further reduce stock exposure for such funds. According to model estimates, S&P 500 futures could face about $28 billion in potential selling in the coming week and about $45 billion in the next month. This estimate corresponds to the demand for position adjustments that may arise from systemic strategies. Macro funds have not yet significantly reduced their positions, which reflects that existing exposures remain in the market. Negative gamma hedging may amplify two-way fluctuations, and option positions may also make the market more unstable. The Bloomberg report cited data from options analysis agency SpotGamma and pointed out that the S&P 500 has a wide range of negative gamma exposure in the range of 7,000 points to 7,550 points. Under this position structure, option traders may increase selling when the market falls and increase buying when the market rises in order to avoid risks. Risk-off trades thus move in the direction of the market, which can either deepen the decline or push up the rebound. Selling of individual stocks, systematic strategic position adjustments and risk aversion by traders all affect different positions, but they may affect the broader market at the same time. When macro funds still retain stock exposure, if market sentiment turns negative again, concentrated adjustments to index positions may overlap with mechanical hedging, making price fluctuations have a wider impact than news from a single company. Related reports Goldman Sachs warns: The S&P 500 fell below the 6725 key point, which may trigger a US$40 billion selling pressure by CTA hedge funds next week. A battle royale for US stock funds? Goldman Sachs: Hedge funds sold off U.S. stocks last week at the largest scale this year. Goldman Sachs: Hedge funds sold off global technology stocks like crazy this week! The scale hit the second highest in five years, second only to the stock market crash in August last year. UBS called for bullish U.S. stocks: Goldman Sachs told clients to buy volatility, and the median pre-election return was 0%. This article was first published on BlockTempo "Dongzone Trends - the most influential blockchain news media".
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