Image source: Reuters
Today, Tuesday and tomorrow, Wednesday, Moscow and Kiev will resume their negotiations in Abu Dhabi under American sponsorship, after a break of more than eight months, amid limited hopes that progress can be made towards a diplomatic settlement of the conflict.
Representatives of European countries seeking to have a role in the negotiations are also heading to the UAE, where they are holding separate talks with the Ukrainian and American delegations.
The last round of negotiations was held in Geneva in February, without leading to substantive results, and contacts stopped completely after the outbreak of war in the Arab region in February, with American-Israeli strikes on Iran.
American envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner began efforts to resume negotiations by visiting Moscow in September, then Kiev in the first visit of its kind, and they are heading the American delegation in Abu Dhabi.
According to Kushner, the talks aim for Russia and Ukraine to directly discuss their concerns “in terms of post-war security,” in order to “push toward concrete solutions and give momentum to the next phase of negotiations.”
US President Donald Trump, who directed several criticisms at Kiev over the past weeks, expected to reach a “very big” agreement with Russia that would not only include Ukraine, but “all of Europe,” which raised fears of an American rapprochement with the Kremlin.
The Europeans fear that Kiev will be forced to accept unfavorable terms in any settlement, or that Washington will provide new security guarantees to Russia without consulting them.
A high-ranking Ukrainian official, who requested to remain anonymous, told Agence France-Presse that Kiev “is not waiting for specific things” from the talks, and added: “We will see how things develop” on the ground.
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Berlin, for its part, said that "it must now be verified whether Russia is ready to negotiate seriously."
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Similar to the last negotiating round in Geneva, the Ukrainian delegation is headed by Rustam Umarov while the Russian delegation is led by nationalist historian Vladimir Medinsky.
On the sidelines of the talks, the Ukrainian delegation is holding “separate coordination meetings” with its partners from the European Union, NATO and the United Kingdom, according to Umarov.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Monday that he held talks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to coordinate positions with the European Union.
Russia seeks to exclude Europe from the discussions, while most European leaders have had only limited contacts, or no contacts at all, with Russian President Vladimir Putin since 2022.
The positions of the two sides appear very far apart, as Moscow demands a new definition of the "European security architecture" and the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the entire Donetsk region (east).
For its part, Kiev refuses to withdraw from this fortified region, the defense of which has cost it enormous human sacrifices since the outbreak of the war against pro-Russian separatists in 2014, and the subsequent large-scale Russian invasion starting in 2022.
Ukraine demands strong security guarantees sufficient to deter Moscow from launching attacks against it again, while the Kremlin opposes the deployment of any European peacekeeping forces.
Von der Leyen stressed on Monday that "any serious discussion in the European security architecture cannot be held before a ceasefire is reached in Ukraine, and must take place within an appropriate framework, especially with allies in NATO and member states of the European Union."
In the field, in parallel with its continuous bombing of Ukraine, Russia has been targeting energy infrastructure again for more than a month, raising fears of a new harsh winter during which millions of Ukrainians will suffer from power outages, heating, and running water.
In addition to similarly sharp criticism of his Ukrainian counterpart on several occasions, Trump moved closer to Moscow, and in early October he announced an agreement with the Kremlin to supply Russian diesel to the American market, despite Western sanctions, which angered Kiev.
A truce supervised by Melania Trump allows the evacuation of residents of a Ukrainian city on the front line
In a rare positive sign, a ceasefire recently supervised by US First Lady Melania Trump and exceptionally respected by both parties allowed the evacuation of residents of a city located on the front line in the Kherson region.
This was the longest truce since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Moscow has so far rejected a comprehensive ceasefire, arguing that this would allow Kiev to strengthen its capabilities.
The recent rounds of direct negotiations resulted only in the exchange of prisoners and the bodies of soldiers.
The Kremlin forces find themselves stuck in a war of attrition, as the heavy deployment of drones hampers any large-scale movements of its forces.
Although it is still making slight progress in some areas, this is inflicting heavy losses on it.
In recent months, a Ukrainian counteroffensive has enabled Kiev to relieve pressure around the cities of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, the last two major regions it still controls in the Donbass basin.
The war in Ukraine, the most violent conflict in Europe since 1945, has caused hundreds of thousands of deaths and injuries on both sides, according to estimates, and has also caused massive destruction.
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