The increase in Brent oil above $126 per barrel, the highest in four years, set off alarms due to its impact on prices worldwide, even after crude oil tempered its rise. The ravages of war in the Middle East have spread to the entire world. In the United States, rising gasoline prices threaten the goal of keeping inflation below 2%, while in Iran life has become 71% more expensive since before the war.

First modification: 04/30/2026 - 19:52 Last modification: 04/30/2026 - 20:07

World oil prices exceeded $126 per barrel this Thursday, April 30, the highest price in the last four years, amid concerns that the war in the Middle East will lead to a prolonged interruption of crude oil supply due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Brent index, which serves as a global benchmark, reached a high of $126.41 per barrel, the highest level since March 9, 2022, when the war in Ukraine strained the global energy market.

However, hours later it had already dropped $4.14, 3.5%, to $113.89, although the rebound sounded like a reminder that the effects of the war in the Middle East are yet to gain dimension.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's share of oil and liquefied natural gas flows, is harming global economic growth with serious threats to inflation.

The strategic sea lane was blocked by Iran in early March as a response to attacks by the US and Israel.

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Read alsoOil rises to its highest level in four years due to the threat of the prolonged closure of Hormuz

What preceded the last rally in the price of crude oil?

Before the oil rebound, the digital media 'Axios' stated, citing anonymous sources, that this Thursday there will be a meeting at the White House where Trump will discuss a series of plans to attack Iran militarily, as an act of pressure for Tehran to resume negotiations on its nuclear program.

Trump himself suggested to the American media the possibility of extending the blockade against Iranian ports, which implies a prolongation of the conflict that would further hurt the crude oil supply chain.

The price of Brent has doubled since the US-Israeli attack on Iran began on February 28, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has risen around 90%. Both are headed for their fourth consecutive month of gains.

Oil, gas and their refined derivatives are essential not only for the operation of cars, trucks and airplanes, but also for the electrical supply of homes and industries and the production of plastics, fertilizers and many other sectors.

Only seven ships have crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, according to shipping data released Thursday, a figure that before the war ranged between 125 and 140 vessels.

Read alsoAttacks and seizures: Hormuz consolidates itself as the new battlefield after extension of the truce

How does the price of gasoline affect inflation in the US?

The rise in gasoline prices in the United States—with a 21% increase in March—has raised the main inflation indicator to its highest point in the last three years.

This is the measurement of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) carried out by the Department of Commerce, the one with the greatest impact on the Federal Reserve, which pointed to an increase in prices of 0.7% in March compared to the previous month and 3.5% in relation to the previous year, which means the largest increase recorded since May 2023.

The price of fuel was a determining indicator for the rise in inflation. The average per gallon of gasoline across the country rose to $4.22 this Thursday, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), compared to $2.98 before the start of the war.

For this reason, core inflation, which does not take into account the price of food or energy (fuels), increased by 3.2% compared to the previous year.

With this economic outlook within the borders and a war in the Middle East that shows no signs of ending soon, the Federal Reserve is moving further and further away from its goal of keeping inflation below 2%.

Consequently, a reduction in interest rates is not foreseeable given that keeping them stable or even increasing them is usually the entity's response to control rising prices.

Outgoing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated in a press conference on Wednesday, April 29, that the central bank will likely keep its interest rate unchanged for months as it assesses the impact of the war with Iran.

This situation does not favor President Donald Trump, who has insistently advocated lowering interest rates and has even fallen out with Powell for not agreeing to his objective.

Read alsoPowell will leave the head of the Fed but will remain as governor to the chagrin of Trump

How does the war erode the Iranian economy?

In Tehran, inflation is far from being measured in single digits. The attacks by the United States and Israel not only annihilated the leadership of the ayatollah regime, but also caused $270 billion in damage and hit 3,000 industrial infrastructures.

Among the sectors attacked by the United States and Israel are the most important in the country, such as petrochemicals and steel, responsible for hundreds of thousands of direct jobs and juicy exports. In 2025, the sale of petrochemicals left Tehran with profits of $13 billion, while the iron and steel industry reported $6 billion in revenue.

After the bombings, 50 petrochemical plants have closed and the main Iranian steel mill and one of the largest in the Middle East, Mobarakeh, will take at least a year to recover its normal capacity, which has led to the ban on exports from these two sectors until further notice.

One million direct jobs and two million indirect jobs have been wiped out due to the effects of the conflict, the Deputy Minister of Labor, Cooperation and Social Welfare, Gholamhosein Mohamadi, recently reported.

The weakening of the Iranian industrial sector is added to the internet blackout decreed by Tehran, which has paralyzed many merchants, mainly medium and small, with a daily cost of 3,300,000 dollars, reported the Iranian Minister of Communications, Sattar Hashemi.

In addition, the blockade of Iranian ports ordered by Donald Trump threatens oil exports, which stood at $80 billion last year.

The effects of war can no longer be hidden in Tehran, with prices rising by up to 71%, according to the Iranian Statistics Center. On the streets, everything is more expensive: plastics, packaging, pipes or fabrics, which in turn increases the cost of basic products such as food.

The Iranian rial reported a historic low on Wednesday, trading at 1,800,000 per dollar, which represents a drop of 13.35% compared to Tuesday's exchange rate and 15% compared to Monday.

How does the war impact flight prices?

With summer just around the corner, airlines face their biggest challenge since the Covid-19 pandemic. The war against Iran has raised the price of jet fuel by up to 84%, according to data from the IATA monitoring center, while travel to or through the Middle East remains at a minimum.

"There is a risk that we will see rationing of fuel supplies, particularly in Asia and Europe," Willie Walsh, director of the International Air Transport Association, warned Reuters.

The German group Lufthansa, owner of the airline of the same name and others, announced last Tuesday, April 28, that it will cut 20,000 short-haul flights until October, due to rising fuel prices and concerns that some countries may run out of supplies.

Meanwhile, Air France-KLM expects its fuel bill this year to reach $9.3 billion, which implies an increase of $2.4 billion due to disruptions from the conflict, the company announced this Thursday, while lowering its capacity forecasts.

Other companies maintain more positive projections. Low-cost airline Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary downplayed concerns, telling Reuters that "the risk of a supply disruption is decreasing," citing recent conversations with suppliers across Europe earlier in the week.

Jozsef Varadi, a delegate for Wizz Air, another low-cost airline, said bookings for the summer were strong.

Gulf airlines are the hardest hit, according to data from Cirium Ascend, which showed a 50% drop in flights operated by Middle Eastern companies in March. Meanwhile, bookings for the second and third quarters of the year with connections through the Gulf have decreased by 42.5%.

The effects of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have spread to all corners of the planet. The equation seems simple: as long as ships continue to slow down at sea, prices will remain sky-high.

Read alsoAircraft fuel reserves are running out in Europe: this is how the situation in Iran is affecting airports

With Reuters, AP, EFE and local media

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