While the airline Transavia announced the first cancellations of flights in May and June, citing the spectacular rise in the price of kerosene, should we fear a paralysis of air transport this summer? If Europe should avoid shortages, travelers should expect to pay more for their tickets.

Published on: 04/30/2026 - 5:55 p.m.

Will summer vacations have to be organized without a plane? For several days, while the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt hydrocarbon supplies, many Internet users have been sharing their concerns on social networks.

This fear was reinforced when certain companies, notably the low-cost Air France-KLM subsidiary Transavia, announced on April 26 the first cancellations of flights in May and June, citing the rise in the price of kerosene and the difficulties of importing from Gulf countries.

To what extent do France and Europe depend on kerosene imports? What should we really expect this summer? How can travelers prepare? France 24 answers you.

Dependence on imports

For several weeks now, the impossibility of importing oil and hydrocarbons from the Gulf countries, due to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, has fueled speculation about an upcoming shortage of kerosene, this fuel resulting from the refining of crude oil which today powers a large majority of aircraft engines in the world.

See also Oil, a geopolitical weapon?

For good reason, "France produces much less kerosene than it consumes. Around 3 million tonnes leave its factories each year while it uses 5 million. The remaining 2 million therefore come from elsewhere, notably from the Middle East", explains Wouter Dewulf, professor of air transport business, academic director of C-MAT, a center of expertise in maritime and air transport in Belgium.

The Gulf countries not only export crude oil, they also export Jet A-1, the kerosene most used in aviation, already refined. With the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, the problem is therefore twofold: Europe finds itself deprived of crude oil but also of refined products. According to data from the Ministry of Energy, before the war in the Middle East, 50% of kerosene was refined in France and 20% came from the Middle East. The rest was shipped from Europe, the United States or Asia.

The observation is the same across Europe. “The continent produces very little oil and in recent years it has reduced its refining capacity,” adds Thierry Bros, professor at Sciences-Po and specialist in energy issues. “It therefore depends more and more on the importation of already refined products from abroad, which makes it particularly vulnerable to international crises.”

See also Kerosene shortage: planes soon under threat?

France in a better position than some neighbors

“France is, however, in a better position than some of its neighbors,” continues Thierry Bros. First, because it is less dependent than others on imports from the Middle East. “The United Kingdom imports two thirds of its kerosene needs, for example,” notes the specialist.

The two large Paris airports of Roissy and Orly should thus be able to avoid any shortage, assured the manager of the airport group on Wednesday. “Paris Aéroport is supplied via a network of pipelines directly connected to refineries and to a terminal in Le Havre,” recalled the group’s strategy director, Christelle de Robillard, during a conference call on activity in the first quarter. “The majority of the crude oil that supplies these infrastructures comes from North America. So we are, compared to others, in a rather better situation,” she added. If there were to be a shortage, it would rather concern secondary airports in France.

Europe is getting organized

And before seeing its reserves run dry, the country still has two months of strategic stocks of fuel and kerosene, recalled Maud Brégeon, government spokesperson and Minister Delegate in charge of Energy on France info Tuesday morning. The same day, the Minister of the Economy Roland Lescure mentioned around two million barrels.

Added to this are commercial stocks installed in airports and which represent the equivalent of around ten days of operation or the crude oil contained in strategic stocks which could be transformed into kerosene.

"There is, as we speak (...), no risk of a shortage of kerosene for the weeks to come", thus reassures the government at all costs. “With all of these factors, the summer should indeed be saved,” confirms Wouter Dewulf. "It remains to be seen how long this can last. If the conflict continues to get bogged down, the question will perhaps arise in the fall, in October or November."

Faced with the threat, in France as in Europe, we are organizing ourselves. To prepare for any eventuality, Roland Lescure invited the airlines on May 6 to discuss the summer season, the busiest in air transport.

The EU also unveiled, on April 22, an arsenal to confront the crisis: reinforced monitoring of its kerosene supply, "maximization" of the production of its refineries... Europe is preparing to "take collective action" which "could prove necessary to preserve the functioning of the single market and guarantee continuity of supply", says the European Commission.

No shortage but a price boom

“But we must differentiate between availability and price,” notes Thierry Bros. “It is not because there is no shortage that the prices of plane tickets will not skyrocket.”

“With the conflict in the Middle East, the price of kerosene has more than doubled. However, in a ticket, up to 40% of the price can correspond to fuel,” recalls the specialist. For certain companies, particularly low cost, which operate on a model of maximum aircraft occupancy and low margins, this can therefore have a significant impact and a direct impact on their economic balance.

In this context, low-cost airlines, such as Transavia, find themselves forced to adjust their offer by increasing prices or reducing the least profitable rotations.

“It is therefore not so much a question of shortage as of economic profitability”, summarizes Thierry Bros. “With the increase in the price of kerosene, a company like Transavia has no choice but to increase the price of the ticket. If the price becomes prohibitive for travelers, and they no longer pay, then keeping planes on the ground ultimately becomes more profitable.”

“Airlines that cancel flights do so for economic reasons,” insists Maud Brégeon’s office. “These are unprofitable flights due to rising fuel prices.”

What rights in the event of cancellation?

For worried travelers: what to do if you are affected by the cancellation of your plane ticket? Unfortunately, not much. Airlines are entitled to cancel a flight if they notify passengers more than 14 days before departure. In all cases, they must offer either a refund of the ticket or rerouting free of charge. On the other hand, no compensation is obligatory in the event of “extraordinary circumstances”, such as the current situation linked to the war in the Middle East.

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