The first oil tankers that were supposed to deliver Russian diesel to the United States under an agreement between President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin have changed course and are no longer heading to the American coast. This probably marks the end of a pact announced with great fanfare before the midterm elections.

First modification: 07/11/2026 - 01:00

The Agioi Fanendes, an oil tanker loaded with 40,000 metric tons of diesel, represents US President Donald Trump's last chance to see his controversial deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin come to fruition.

The pact was reached last month, before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, amid rising fuel prices and the cost of living crisis in the United States. However, he failed to prevent the Republicans' crushing defeat in the elections and a 'blue wave' propelled the Democrats to a landslide victory across the country.

Now, the understanding designed to offer Trump a political lifeline is crumbling on the high seas.

The Agioi Fanendes, flying the Maltese flag, is the first of three oil tankers that set sail from Russia – officially to deliver their valuable cargo to the United States – and that are still heading towards the US coast, as reported by the Financial Times in an article published a day after the midterms.

The Talisman, a Russian tanker on international sanctions lists, left the St. Petersburg area on October 22. But after sailing through the English Channel, it turned south, skirted the Bay of Biscay and the Portuguese coast before entering the Mediterranean Sea through the Strait of Gibraltar.

The Leruo – also sanctioned by the European Union, the United Kingdom and the United States – continues its journey across the Atlantic, but now has Brazil as its official destination as it sails towards the southwest of that ocean.

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Moscow has called the FT report "fake" news. Kirill Dmitriev, the Kremlin's envoy and negotiator, maintained on November 5 that "tankers bound for the US remain on course," in a post on X.

But when asked about the details of the shipments, Russian government spokesman Dmitri Peskov said it was a "commercial" matter that could not be made public. "All diesel will find a buyer," he added.

Trump met with Dmitriev at the White House on Thursday, while the top Kremlin envoy was in the United States for an event with first lady Melania Trump, ahead of talks next week between Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Abu Dhabi. However, the US president declined to give reporters details of his meeting with the Russian emissary.

Read alsoThe United States opens the door to Russian diesel while Trump seeks to alleviate the fuel rebound

An agreement "dead from the beginning"

For Agioi Fanendes, everything is still possible. According to the vessel's tracking data from Friday, November 6, its destination was listed as awaiting "orders." The tanker's last recorded position was on October 28.

Just a few days ago, "it was expected to arrive in New York over the weekend (November 7-8)," Matt Smith, an analyst at Kpler, a global provider of maritime data and analytics, told the Financial Times.

Smith believes there is no doubt that the Agioi Fanendes, Trump's last hope for getting Russian diesel into American ports, will end up selling its cargo elsewhere, as did the Talisman and Leruo.

If this prediction comes true, "the diesel deal is, for all intents and purposes, dead," said Kevin Rowlands, a maritime security specialist at the Royal United Services Institute, a U.K.-based defense think tank.

"Theoretically, it may hold. But in practice, I don't think Russian oil or diesel, or much of anything, will be channeled through the United States in the immediate future," he said, adding that the route followed by these three tankers was "very unstable from the beginning."

The fuel deal was announced with much fanfare on October 9 in response to rising gasoline costs, with Trump declaring on Truth Social that it would "reduce prices for Americans, especially our great farmers, ranchers and truckers."

Shortly after the Republican promised that Moscow would export "millions" of metric tons of Russian diesel to the United States, the Treasury Department issued a regulation authorizing American companies to buy, deliver, unload and import that product despite existing US sanctions.

Following this presidential exemption, Moscow, for its part, lifted the ban on diesel exports, which had been imposed a few months earlier to alleviate fuel shortages in Russia caused by Ukrainian air attacks against oil facilities.

Thus, the ships Agioi Fanendes, Leruo and Talisman were able to set sail... in secret. Surveillance by NGOs like Greenpeace and companies like Kpler was necessary to track and monitor these shipments.

Read alsoTrump and the midterms: the cost of diesel and gasoline and the imminent bill at the polls

A "victory for European policymaking"

Trump's compromise deal on diesel sparked a strong reaction in the United States from both sides of the political spectrum. The economic logic behind an understanding that could bring millions in profits to Moscow did not convince analysts. What's more, the hundreds of thousands of metric tons promised "quickly" by Russia were not enough to cover the needs of the United States for even a single day.

The arrival of the three tankers would have, at the very least, allowed Trump to declare that he was keeping his promises. The reason for the change of course has baffled several analysts.

"It is difficult to know the exact reason for this turn," admitted Maximilian Hess, founder of the consulting firm Enmetena Advisory and author of the acclaimed book 'Economic Warfare: Ukraine and the Global Conflict between Russia and the West'.

In fact, there may be several explanations. The first relates to the risks for buyers of Russian diesel, despite the exemption signed by Trump. "The president of the United States can sign an international agreement, but in enforcing it, the federal government may encounter resistance from some governors," said Kevin Rowlands.

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Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic governor of New Jersey, for example, has threatened ports that accept Russian diesel with legal action and million-dollar fines. The Agioi Fanendes was scheduled to arrive at a port that is partially under its jurisdiction. The Port of New York and New Jersey is located in the New York-Newark metropolitan area and is under the interstate administration of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.

This apparent discrepancy between presidential reach and governors' power is evident in the diversity of anti-Russian sanctions regimes currently in place in the United States. Opponents of the deal maintain that the order signed by Trump does not apply to the End Russian Oil Importation Act of 2022, which requires the president to obtain congressional approval before granting a waiver of sanctions on Russian oil.

"Then there is the issue of UK and EU sanctions. It seems likely that the diesel from the first two ships did not find a buyer in the US willing to risk breaching those sanctions," Hess said.

The penalties are triggered as soon as a European entity – an insurer, a bank or any other intermediary – participates in a transaction involving sanctioned oil. If that's the case, Hess says the rerouting of the tankers represents a "victory for European policy and anti-sanctions circumvention measures."

Read alsoTrump and Putin's diesel deal: what's behind it?

There is no reason to maintain the "illusion"

The changing political landscape in the United States may also have played a role. "Moscow realized that Donald Trump had lost authority, and the results of the midterm elections only confirmed that the risk of oil tankers being seized in US ports had increased dramatically, something unacceptable to the Kremlin," Rowlands said.

Governors like Mikie Sherrill would now be more willing to disobey the wishes of a weakened president.

Finally, "these tankers may never have intended to reach the United States," suggested Dirk Siebels, a maritime security specialist at Risk Intelligence. The purpose of Trump's maneuver was "purely political: to try to lower prices before the midterm elections," he stressed.

The images of the oil tankers en route to the United States served to send a concrete signal to the financial markets. In this scenario, the political benefit of aligning with Trump more than justified Moscow paying a little more for the diversion to the United States before heading to the real diesel destinations, such as Brazil.

"Once the elections were over, and given that this effort had had no effect, there was no longer any reason to maintain that illusion," Rowlands predicted.

Read alsoCriticism grows against Trump for his agreement to buy Russian diesel: senators warn that he could violate the law

Regardless of the reason, the tankers' change of course represents the best possible outcome for everyone, according to this expert. The United States avoids a new source of conflict between the president and the Democrats, the Russians will be able to sell their diesel in other markets and the Europeans can be glad that Trump's fuel deal is gone.

Article adapted from its original in French

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