Abidjan (AFP) – Cocoa production in Côte d'Ivoire, the world's leading producer, could fall between 21% and 25% due to the exceptional El Niño climate phenomenon, the meteorological authorities of the African country warned in a note consulted on Tuesday by AFP.

First modification: 10/11/2026 - 13:26

This Western Arctic nation alone contributes 40% of world cocoa production. The sector represents 15% of its GDP and supports, directly and indirectly, some five million people.

According to Sodexam, an Ivorian public body in charge of meteorology, El Niño could reduce precipitation by between 10 and 27% in the country, increase temperatures and prolong the dry season.

This will cause "a drop in cocoa production of between 21% and 25%" due, among other factors, to the wilting and premature fall of young pods, floral abortion and the loss of leaves from the trees," said this body.

In its note, Sodexam warns of the possible "colossal economic losses for producers" and the reduction of State income from exports.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years due to the warming of the surface waters of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

This increase in temperatures causes significant alterations in wind, pressure and precipitation patterns on a global scale.

This year's episode, of exceptional intensity and classified as "super El Niño", should reach its peak in December and last until April or May 2027.

In this situation, the Ivorian body Sodexam recommends resorting to more drought-resistant varieties or developing complementary irrigation systems.

© 2026 AFP

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