Both internal rivals in the Labor Party and conservative opponents, the far right and the Greens are moving their chips in the face of the House of Commons' refusal to investigate British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Analysts consulted by France 24 reflect on the direction of Downing Street and the political expressions that are growing in the United Kingdom.

First modification: 04/30/2026 - 21:24

More than five hours of debate in the House of Commons (Lower House) took British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to demonstrate the discipline of the enormous majority of his parliamentary bloc. The result: the rejection of the motion presented by the Conservative Party to submit the president to the Committee of Privileges - an ethical court of the legislative house.

Starmer was facing this motion due to an alleged falsehood before the chamber in the process of appointing former minister Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington, at the center of the controversy over his ties to the late pedophile Jeffrey Epstein.

For the political dynamics of the United Kingdom, lying in Parliament is considered a serious infraction and a "contempt" to the chamber, something that traditionally leads to resignation.

Starmer was haunted by the specter of what happened to former Prime Minister Boris Johnson. The Conservative resigned in 2023 after learning the conclusions of the Committee of Privileges report on parties held in Downing Street during the Covid-19 pandemic.

In the case of Starmer, the initiative of the leader of the opposition Conservative Party, Kemi Badenoch, received 335 votes against and 223 in favor. A victory for the prime minister that leaves some ellipses.

Read alsoThe British Parliament refuses to investigate Starmer for Mandelson's appointment

"Good news that we don't know how long it will last"

From the University of Bath, Juan Pablo Ferrero, professor of Politics and International Studies, tells France 24 in Spanish: “In principle it is good news for Starmer, who does not know how long he will last in a government that comes from crisis to crisis.” According to the specialist, the case of Peter Madelson “hit very badly” to a government that shows a drop in the polls and that “cannot find its own political identity.”

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At the University of Liverpool, also consulted by France 24 in Spanish, Raúl Gómez, associate professor of Political Science, considers that the decision of the British Parliament gives "a ball of air" to the prime minister because the investigation "would have been very uncomfortable for him in the face of public opinion. It would have put him in a very complicated situation by going through certain scrutiny and testifying in a committee about what happened."

Read alsoStarmer escapes investigation for naming ambassador linked to Epstein

How do conservatives and the far right benefit?

The victory of Labor in the House of Commons is configured as a limit for the opponents, but it does not seem to have a similar effect for the Conservative Party and for Reform UK, the extreme right party that shows growth in the polls.

"The conservatives are trying to regroup and find a new narrative after a hegemony of many years in the government. Therefore, they are in reconstruction," says Ferrero.

Regarding Reform UK, he highlights that “it appears to be a disruption” that could cause a “political revolution” in the two-party system that prevails in the United Kingdom. Furthermore, he observes a professionalization of its leadership that implied care in incorporations into the party, a purge of the “most unpresentable” figures and special care for communication and electoral strategies.

At the same time, he points out a nuance about the formation led by Nigel Farage: "It is not in their best interest for Starmer's Government to completely collapse. It is in their best interest for a weak government to come to an end while they continue to consolidate themselves as a party that can form a government."

For Gómez, this process helps the extreme right because “everything that affects the Labor Party can benefit it,” although he clarifies that Reform UK's priorities are linked to immigration policy.

“It is very likely that the extreme right will grow quite a bit in the next elections because the other parties within the right-wing spectrum, particularly the conservatives, are very weak,” he analyzes.

Ferrero also sees that the Green Party could benefit from the prime minister's crisis and highlights the charisma of its figure in Parliament, Zack Polanski.

"Communicationally he is very effective, he knows how to use social networks and he is quite provocative. Now the greens have stopped talking only about the environment and talk about social justice, that workers do not have access to basic issues that they did before," he emphasizes.

Read alsoUnited Kingdom: migration polarizes the country while the far-right party gains ground

A Labor government without Starmer?

One of Starmer's most important achievements in this parliamentary triumph was to impose party discipline that forced the rebel deputies of his party to support him. In any case, the internal subordination was not total because fourteen Labor parliamentarians rebelled against the Government and voted in favor of initiating the investigation against the tenant of Downing Street.

In the case of those who submitted to party discipline, they questioned the imposition and suggested that it should be Starmer himself who voluntarily proposed his case to the Committee of Privileges to "clear his name."

“Within the Labor Party there are several factions that are playing a little game to see to what extent Starmer could be replaced before the next election,” explains the professor at the University of Liverpool.

Meanwhile, his colleague from the University of Bath maintains that the Labor bench's vote is a tactical reaction rather than a strategic one: "Everyone assessed that a crisis for Starmer would also mean a crisis for themselves."

Andy Burnham, mayor of Greater Manchester, was the name that was being floated as a possible successor to Starmer. He attempted to be the Labor candidate in the election for the English constituency of Gorton & Denton, which had been left vacant after the recent resignation of its deputy, Andrew Gwynne. But the National Executive Committee of the British ruling party (NEC) blocked his aspirations by not authorizing his candidacy in the by-election.

"He is a person within the political center of Labor who had a chance of competing with him for leadership. Now no one appears. So, the members of Parliament are not going to get rid of Starmer until there is also another leader who is going to take over," warns Ferrero.

Regarding the medium term, the professor of Politics and International Studies reports that a majority within the Labor party is “beginning to raise its voice regarding the possibility of changing for a leadership that would remain within the center.”

Expressions on the left or right within Labor do not seem to have a place in the formation and these were relegated to the creation of new parties that, for now, are on the margins of the political system.

Read alsoKeir Starmer "fighting" to regain control of the Labor Party: 'The Guardian

May 7 will be the next test

On May 7 there will be local elections in England and regional elections in Scotland and Wales. Although domestic issues usually carry weight, voters' preferences will be a test to measure the extent of the Labor Party debacle predicted by the polls and the level of growth that Reform UK and the Green Party could have.

The fate of Labor will also mark the level of tension between internal currents and the possibility of a change in the leadership of the ruling party.

Gómez estimates that local elections may discourage the participation of voters disillusioned with Starmer. That is why he interprets that "the question is what will happen in more important elections, where voters have to choose between the extreme right or whatever prevents the extreme right from winning."

"So, in that case, I think the situation is going to change a lot," he points out.

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