Mali entered a critical security situation and a state of uncertainty after the coordinated and unprecedented attacks carried out on Saturday by jihadists and Tuareg rebels throughout the country. These attacks constituted a devastating blow to the ruling military regime since 2020, especially with the killing of Defense Minister General Sadio Camara, one of the pillars of the regime and the architect of the rapprochement with Moscow, and conflicting reports about the possible departure of Russian forces.

Published on: 04/30/2026 - 17:49

Since Saturday, the security situation in Mali has descended into an unusual spiral of violence.

After two days of fierce battles, the strategic city of Kidal, located in the north, fell into the hands of Tuareg rebels affiliated with the Front for the Liberation of Azawad (FLA), and jihadists from the "Jama'a Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM)" linked to Al-Qaeda.

In addition to these attacks that confounded the ruling military junta in Mali, the killing of General Sadio Camara, Minister of Defense and the regime's second-in-command, as a result of a suicide car bomb attack carried out in the heart of the main military academy, Kati, which is also the regime's stronghold near the capital, Bamako, was a painful blow to the military regime.

The attack on the city of Kati claimed the lives of at least 23 civilians and soldiers.

A devastating blow to the military council? And also for Russia?

Sadio Camara is one of the officers behind the 2020 coup. Camara, the number two in the regime, embodied the hard-line trend in the ruling clique. He received part of his military training in Russia, and was the main architect of Mali's radical shift towards Moscow, which gradually resulted in distance from Western partners, led by France, and ended with the withdrawal of its forces in 2022.

On the other hand, cooperation was strengthened with Russian Wagner Group fighters, which were replaced in 2025 by Russian African Legion forces.

Therefore, the killing of Camara, along with the recent developments on the ground, constitutes a devastating blow to the military regime, and raises questions about the extent of the cohesion of the leadership in the ruling hierarchy. After being silent since the attacks began on Saturday morning, the leader of the military junta, Asimi Goeta, did not appear in public for 72 hours, raising speculation about his ability to remain in power.

Read also: Mali: What is the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad and what are its demands?

But later on Tuesday, the Finance Presidency published pictures on the platforms, taken during his meeting with the Russian ambassador, and pictures of Goeta visiting the wounded in the attack and the relatives of the late minister.

Goeta confirmed that "the situation is under control", in his first appearance since the attacks, but acknowledged the "extreme seriousness" of the situation in the country. He said in a speech broadcast on state television in the evening, "Security measures have been strengthened. The situation is under control, and combing, searching, gathering information, and securing the areas are continuing." He called on his citizens to "a national uprising" and "confront national division and rift," considering that "Mali needs prudence, not panic."

A day earlier, a fragile calm prevailed Monday in the skies over Bamako and Kati, the center of military power, and where battles were still raging on Sunday. Markets, schools and offices were open, and residents appeared to be going about their lives as usual.

"The population is in a state of mourning after the announcement of the death of General Sadio Camara," France 24 correspondent Serge Daniel said. But he reported that there were reports of gunfire on Monday in the town of Douentza, located between Mopti and Gao, “which led to the displacement of about sixty civilians” from it.

But what is striking is that Kidal, which is now under the control of Tuareg separatists and jihadists, witnessed the withdrawal of Russian soldiers belonging to the Africa Corps, a Russian paramilitary organization controlled by Moscow, from this strategic city after its fall.

The rebels even announced an “agreement” requiring the withdrawal of Russian military personnel. In this context, Serge Daniel explained that “Russian mercenaries demanded the opening of a humanitarian corridor that would allow them to return to their homes,” adding: “The armed groups lowered the national flag, while the civil authorities left.”

In light of these developments and news of a possible Russian withdrawal from Malian territory, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Thursday that Russian forces will not leave Mali, and affirmed his country's rejection of the Tuareg rebels' call to withdraw its forces.

But why did jihadists and Tuareg separatists ally?

The Group to Support Islam and Muslims (JNIM), the pro-Al-Qaeda coalition founded in 2017, has long been a major player in the jihadist insurgency in the Sahel. It is led by Iyad Ag Ghali, a figure with a history in the Tuareg revolts during the 1990s, before he joined the jihadists.

“This group has learned to adapt to the threat of the Malian army, evade it, and develop the ability to put major cities under pressure,” explains Jean-Hervé Geséquiel, director of the Sahel Project at the International Crisis Group. The expert adds that this development is clearly evident in its increasing pressure on “commercial and logistical flows,” including in the capital.

For its part, the Front for the Liberation of Azawad, an alliance of armed groups mostly Tuareg, seeks the independence of Azawad, the vast region in the north. It follows in the footsteps of other separatist rebellions that have challenged central authority for decades, without succeeding in establishing a permanent balance of power.

But it recorded specific successes, such as its release of a Spanish hostage who was kidnapped in Algeria in January 2025. A few months later, it also inflicted a terrible defeat on the Malian forces and their Russian allies in a bloody ambush.

Read also: The security crisis in Mali: Does danger threaten the Maghreb countries?

In recent months, the "Group for the Liberation of Azawad" has converged with the "Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims" after a meeting of their leaders to unite their efforts against the ruling military junta. This rapprochement means a return to a scenario that Mali has not witnessed since 2012.

For the first time since the two groups took control of northern Mali, before they were defeated following the French Operation Serval, jihadists and Tuareg rebels are cooperating today again on this scale.

Ulf Lessing, head of the Sahel program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Mali, describes the current situation: “JIM and the Tuareg rebels have little in common, but they have one enemy.”

He continues: "They realize that they are unable to impose regime change alone, so they formed a team, as they did in 2012." However, this rapprochement remains fragile.” “It is a highly unstable, circumstantial alliance,” explains the expert, recalling how “the jihadists eventually eliminated the Tuareg” during their previous cooperation.

But Wassim Nasr, a France 24 journalist specializing in jihadist movements, notes that “the agreements concluded more than a year ago between the Front for the Liberation of Azawad and the Group to Support Islam and Muslims are now being translated into the form of increased cooperation.” He talks about "exchanging experiences", including: manufacturing explosives, handling heavy weapons, logistics services or driving vehicles. Nasr also points out that the best evidence of the existence of this coordination is the simultaneous attacks, which were carried out on several fronts.

Nasr also explained that there is a clear strategy behind this coordination, as “the goal was not to seize Bamako, but rather to occupy the army in the capital and the center to devote itself to controlling the north.” Despite this, the two groups' common goal remains to weaken the Malian military junta and its Russian allies, while strengthening territorial control. The expert on jihadist movements concluded on France 24 by stressing that “there is definite coordination to resume fighting against the military junta, and also against the Russians.”

After Russia failed them, will the military in Mali return to the embrace of the West?

The failure of Russian military support to enable the Malian army to contain today's dual jihadist and separatist threat will likely prompt Mali's military regime to reconsider its alliances.

In an indication of Moscow's concerns, the Russian Defense Ministry admitted on Tuesday that "the situation in the Republic of Mali is still difficult," and said that "the enemies have not given up their aggressive intentions." The Ministry also confirmed the withdrawal of the Africa Corps from the city of Kidal, an event of great symbolism, because the Malian army, with Moscow's support, regained the stronghold of the Tuareg rebellion in 2023, eleven years after supporters of Azawad's independence took control of it.

In fact, the Russian withdrawal left a clear impact on the personnel of the Malian army. A financial official told Radio France Internationale: “The Russians betrayed us in Kidal,” and confirmed that the governor of the region had previously warned the Russians “three days before the attack, and they did nothing.”

This situation raises questions, and may increase the vulnerability of Malian forces in the face of attacks that are unprecedented in terms of spread and coordination between the attacking parties.

Djenebo Cisse, an expert on defense issues in the Sahel at the Foundation for Strategic Research, believes that the phenomenon of “growing dissatisfaction was already present among the ranks of the Malian armed forces, especially due to frustration regarding the salary differentials - a few hundred dollars for Malian soldiers versus several thousand dollars for Russian soldiers - and the lack of operational results and field support from the African Corps on the ground.”

Cisse also drew attention to several reports that revealed “disdain, and even racism, on the part of the Russians towards Malian soldiers.” She also believes that the fall of Kidal is a "painful blow to Russia."

Read also: Mali: An uneasy calm in Bamako and Kati after unprecedented attacks by armed groups

Will the current situation force the Malian Military Council to search for alliances other than Russia? Return to the Western powers? Ulf Lessing believes that “the Malian government cannot rely solely on one partner for the long term. The new Defense Minister may be inclined to diversify sources of support, including strengthening relations with the United States.”

In fact, Washington has already begun talks with Bamako to revive cooperation in the field of intelligence, which the Bamako authorities were not previously enthusiastic about, but which may regain momentum in light of the current conditions.

As for Gilles Yapi, professor of political science and founder of the WATHI research center, the moment is crucial: “We are still in a very ambiguous and uncertain stage,” and this expert added to France 24: “Things depend on what will happen in the coming days: either the Malian military leadership will confirm its ability to re-establish itself and assert its authority, or we will enter into a scenario of collapse or military change in the financial pyramid of power, with the possibility of the Russians withdrawing.”

“The regime will fall sooner or later.”

This scenario and trend are reinforced by statements made on Wednesday by a spokesman for the Tuareg rebels, in which he said that the ruling military junta in Mali would inevitably fall.

Mohamed Mouloud Ramadan told Agence France-Presse during his visit to Paris: “The (Mali) regime will fall sooner or later. It will fall, as they have no solution to remain in power... in the face of the Front for the Liberation of Azawad’s attack to reclaim the lands of Azawad (northern Mali) on the one hand, and the attack by others (the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims) on Bamako and other cities.” He continued: "They will not be able to hold out."

Ramadan stressed: “Our goal is the permanent withdrawal of the Russians from Azawad and from all of Mali,” adding, “We have been victorious in all the confrontations we have had with the Russians.” He also said: “We do not have a special problem with Russia, nor with any other country. Our problem lies with the ruling regime in Bamako.”

The spokesman confirmed that the rebels now intend to control Gao, Timbuktu and Menaka after taking control of Kidal.

Original text in French: Barbara Gabel, Grégoire Sauvage

Translated into Arabic by: Tariq Balqin

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