A report from a European intelligence service, leaked to several media outlets, describes a Russian power mired in isolation and a very marked security paranoia. The portrait of a Vladimir Putin who seems to fear his own shadow deserves, however, to be taken with caution, according to the experts consulted by France 24.

First modification: 05/05/2026 - 21:00

Vladimir Putin would have considerably strengthened security measures around him, while reducing his contacts with the outside world to a minimum. All this in a context of suspicions about a possible plot against the Russian president, according to a report from a European intelligence service that has been leaked to several media outlets since Sunday, May 3.

Putin "fears assassination attempts, a coup d'état, and tensions between the various security services continue to increase," summarizes 'iStories', an independent Russian-language investigative media that published the full report on Monday.

No smartphone or public transportation

The origin of this leak - from which 'CNN' and 'Financial Times' have also benefited - is not identified, but the source holds a "position in the Government of a European country", says 'iStories'.

The portrait of Vladimir Putin drawn in this report is reminiscent of that of an underground mafia godfather. "It is not surprising, given that the Putin regime has similarities with organized crime," acknowledges Stephen Hall, a Russia specialist at the University of Bath.

Therefore, it would be impossible to carry a phone in the presence of the Russian president, since the presidential protection service, the FSO, only allows cell phones without an internet connection.

The president's entourage no longer has permission to travel by public transport and must necessarily use the vehicles made available to them by the FSO. According to the leaked document. Apparently, this security service would also have tapped the phones of all the cooks, photographers and bodyguards who work in the presidential environment.

The report indicates that Putin is spending more and more time in different bunkers and has not visited any military installation since the beginning of the year, "unlike the numerous trips of this type he made in 2025," this report from the European intelligence service highlights.

The FSO would also have been responsible for the personal protection of a dozen generals and other army officers. A decision made by the Kremlin following the murders claimed by the Ukrainian intelligence services in Russian territory, such as that of Lieutenant General Fanil Sarvarov, killed in the explosion of his car in the heart of Moscow in December 2025.

Fear of a coup d'état

With paranoia also comes suspicion. The death of Fanil Sarvarov led Vladimir Putin to organize an emergency meeting at the end of 2025. The different security services then accused each other of not being up to the task of protecting the presidential environment and the military leadership, says the document reproduced by 'iStories'.

Rumors of a coup d'état are also multiplying, according to this portrait of a Russian power that fears its own shadow. In the spotlight: Sergei Shoigu, Putin's former Defense Minister and lifelong friend. He would be considered a "potential actor seeking to destabilize" power, says 'iStories'.

This description "undoubtedly denotes a high degree of paranoia in the upper echelons of power, but it is the evolution of a trend observed since COVID-19," emphasizes Jeff Hawn, a Russia specialist at the London School of Economics.

The Russian president had already acquired the habit, during the pandemic, of receiving his guests around gigantic tables to maintain distance from possible sources of contagion... or poisoning camouflaged as coronavirus.

Recent events may have reinforced the Kremlin leader's fears. "The capture of Nicolás Maduro by the Americans and the selective assassinations of Iranian officials by Israel may have affected him," says Kevin Riehle, a specialist in intelligence services and security issues in Russia at Brunel University in London. The Russian president fears that these examples will inspire Ukrainians.

If the claims in this report are true, "there is now a deterioration in political stability in Russia, with a president who has difficulty trusting the system he himself has established," summarizes Jeff Hawn.

The influence of the FSO

The description of the growing tensions between the different clans also suggests "that Vladimir Putin is no longer as strong as he thought," notes Kevin Riehle. The Russian president has always known how to pit some factions against others, while "managing to maintain a unity around him, which now seems to be falling apart," the expert emphasizes.

In this context, if the Russian leader increasingly isolates himself from the real world, "he will live in an information bubble that can complicate decision-making and adaptation to the real evolution of the situation," estimates Stephen Hall. It is not the ideal framework for waging war in Ukraine, which requires access to the most accurate and up-to-date information.

Read alsoAt least 22 dead from Russian attacks in Ukraine, in the face of the ceasefire proposed by kyiv

The report also highlights the central role of the FSO, the president's protection service, much less known than its counterparts in the FSB, the SVR (the foreign intelligence service) or the GRU (military intelligence). Kevin Riehle assures that "the FSO is, however, very influential in the world of Russian intelligence."

Like the American "Secret Service", it is the FSO that selects those who can have access to Vladimir Putin. And not just physically; "He also controls the president's communications," says Kevin Riehle.

The FSO has another very useful tool in these times of information isolation of the president: "This service carries out opinion polls, just like a polling institute. This allows it to take the pulse of the country and then transmit that information to the president," adds the expert.

All these tools make the FSO an important player even in normal times. Stephen Hall believes it is possible "that he may have gained even more influence in the current climate if the president believes that the only ones he can truly trust are those who provide for his security."

Psychological warfare operation?

However, one must be careful not to take everything in this document at face value, according to Mark Galeotti, a specialist in Russian intelligence services and director of Mayak Intelligence, a consulting firm on security issues in Russia.

For him, "it could also be a psychological warfare operation directed against the Kremlin." An opinion shared by military analyst Kirill Shamiev, who lists in X the different "anomalies" in this report.

"There are elements known for a long time that are presented here as new," explains Mark Galeotti. The report thus indicates that the FSO "has mobilized units along the Moscow River in order to respond to drone attacks." But "the FSO has been accompanying the president with portable drone interceptors for quite some time now," Kirill Shamiev emphasizes.

The claim that Vladimir Putin's entourage can no longer use public transport also raises skepticism from Mark Galeotti. "The idea that the FSO also serves as a luxury taxi service seems hardly credible," he says.

But the most difficult statement for the experts interviewed to digest is that Sergei Shoigu may be plotting a coup d'état. "He is one of Vladimir Putin's few true friends," says Galeotti. "It is true that a betrayal by Sergei Shoigu seems difficult to admit," admits Kevin Riehle.

For experts, it is also possible that one of the main objectives of this document is to create tensions between the Russian president and his old friend, introducing these rumors among more credible information.

Because, although for some experts this report should be taken with caution, "that does not mean that security concerns are not real in the upper echelons of power. But some of the data mentioned are, at the very least, debatable," concludes Mark Galeotti. It is as if the European intelligence service is trying to add fuel to the fire in Moscow. Which would be a legitimate...informational strategy?

This article was adapted from its original French version.

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