Following a remote meeting, the seven member countries of the OPEC+ alliance, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, announced on Sunday the increase in their volume of oil production. A decision intended to demonstrate the continuity of the organization after the recent departure of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the group's fourth producer. The real impact of this increase remains very limited due to constraints linked to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.

Published on: 05/03/2026 - 09:57 Modified on: 05/03/2026 - 15:16

The seven member countries of OPEC+ increased their oil production quotas on Sunday, May 3, in order to demonstrate the continuity of the organization after the recent departure of the United Arab Emirates, which was the fourth producer of OPEC+.

Together, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman increased their quotas "by 188,000 barrels per day" for the month of June, according to the press release published on the website of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

The group's statement does not mention the United Arab Emirates, an omission which "in effect" reflects a sign of tensions in relations with Abu Dhabi after its departure from the alliance this week, estimates Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy (independent energy research and business intelligence company) from AFP.

Also read: Withdrawal of the UAE from OPEC: “A way of confirming the break with the other Gulf countries”

“By sticking to the same production trajectory – simply without the United Arab Emirates – it acts as if nothing had happened, deliberately minimizing internal fractures and displaying an image of stability,” said Jorge Leon.

“A deficit of around 9 million barrels per day”

This increase on paper will very probably not be able to materialize in additional production: the main unexploited capacities of OPEC+ are found in the Gulf countries whose exports are obstructed by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, orchestrated by Iran since the start of the war in the Middle East.

Among the OPEC+ countries which are subject to quotas, production "fell to 27.68 million barrels per day in March", while the addition of their quotas for that same month represented 36.73 million barrels per day, "i.e. a deficit of around 9 million barrels per day", specifies Priya Walia, analyst at Rystad Energy.

The shock is essentially distributed between Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and of course the United Arab Emirates, whose production will no longer be counted among that of the alliance (Iran is a member of OPEC+ but is not subject to quotas).

This situation with very high energy prices benefits the most to Russia, the second largest producer in the group, but it already seems to have difficulty producing at the level of its current quotas. Its oil industry has faced Western disinvestment since the start of the war triggered by its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and production regularly hampered by Ukrainian drone strikes.

Other countries ready to leave?

For the group, the departure of the United Arab Emirates "is a major event", much more important than the departure of Qatar in 2019 and then Angola, said Amena Bakr, analyst at Kpler (the company maps the flows of oil and raw materials in the world in real time), during a videoconference on this subject.

In addition to being the fourth largest producer in OPEC+ by volume, Abu Dhabi has very significant untapped production capacity, an essential lever for the group when it must regulate the market. As early as 2021, “the United Arab Emirates had expressed their grievances regarding their quotas”, underlines Amena Bakr.

The country has invested heavily in its infrastructure in recent years and its national oil company Adnoc plans a production capacity of 5 million barrels per day by 2027, well beyond its last quota set at 3.447 million barrels per day.

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Adnoc also pledged on Sunday to spend $55 billion on new projects over the next two years, confirming that the company is "accelerating growth and the implementation of its strategy."

This makes Abu Dhabi a competing player on the market, also capable of producing at very low costs, and which could limit the impact of the measures taken by Riyadh and its allies, once the market returns to a form of normality after the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz.

For OPEC+, the risk is also that other countries will be tempted to leave: Kazakhstan and Iraq, for example, have often been singled out for having exceeded their quotas.

With AFP

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