After a remote meeting, the seven member countries of the OPEC+ alliance, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, announced on Sunday an increase of 188,000 barrels per day in their production quotas for June, in an attempt to project unity after the surprise departure of the United Arab Emirates. Despite the announcement, analysts warn that the measure is merely symbolic, since the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the operational limitations of partners such as Russia keep the group with a production deficit close to 9 million barrels per day.
First modification: 05/03/2026 - 16:24
The seven member countries of OPEC+ increased, on Sunday, May 3, their oil production quotas to show the continuity of the organization after the recent departure of the United Arab Emirates, which was the fourth largest producer in OPEC+.
Together, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman increased their quotas "by 188,000 barrels per day" for the month of June, according to the statement published on the website of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
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The group's statement does not mention the United Arab Emirates, an omission that "in effect" reflects a sign of tensions in relations with Abu Dhabi after its departure from the alliance this week, estimates Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy (an independent energy research and economic surveillance company) for AFP.
"A deficit of about 9 million barrels per day"
It is very likely that this increase on paper cannot materialize in additional production: the main idle capacities of OPEC+ are found in the Gulf countries, whose exports are obstructed by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, orchestrated by Iran since the start of the war in the Middle East.
Among the OPEC+ countries subject to quotas, production "fell to 27.68 million barrels per day in March", while the sum of their quotas for that same month represented 36.73 million barrels per day, "which represents a deficit of about 9 million barrels per day," says Priya Walia, an analyst at Rystad Energy.
The impact is mainly distributed between Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and, of course, the United Arab Emirates, whose production will no longer be counted within the alliance (Iran is a member of OPEC+ but is not subject to quotas).
This situation of very high energy prices mainly benefits Russia, the group's second largest producer, although it seems to already have difficulties producing at the level of its current quotas. Its oil industry faces disinvestment from Westerners since the start of the war triggered by its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and production regularly hampered by Ukrainian drone attacks.
Other countries willing to leave?
For the group, the departure of the United Arab Emirates "is an event of great magnitude", much more important than the departure of Qatar in 2019 and then that of Angola, estimated Amena Bakr, an analyst at Kpler, during a video conference on the subject.
In addition to being an important OPEC+ producer by volume, Abu Dhabi has a very significant idle production capacity, an essential lever for the group when it needs to regulate the market. Already in 2021, "the United Arab Emirates had expressed its complaints regarding its quotas," notes Amena Bakr.
The country has invested massively in its infrastructure in recent years and its national oil company, Adnoc, foresees a production capacity of 5 million barrels per day by 2027, well above its last quota set at 3,447 million barrels per day.
Adnoc also pledged on Sunday to spend $55 billion on new projects over the next two years, confirming that the company "is accelerating growth and the implementation of its strategy."
This makes Abu Dhabi a competing player in the market, also capable of producing at very low costs, and which could limit the impact of the measures taken by Riyadh and its allies once the market recovers some normality after the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz.
For OPEC+, the risk is also that other countries will be tempted to leave: Kazakhstan and Iraq, for example, have often been singled out for exceeding their quotas.
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