The American capture of Nicolas Maduro was intended, among other things, for Washington, to brutally reaffirm that Venezuela and Latin America in general depended on the United States' sphere of influence. A message especially addressed to China which risks having difficulty protecting its interests in the region.

Published on: 01/06/2026 - 5:34 p.m.

This is an extract from Chinese television that is causing a lot of talk. It comes from a report broadcast on December 19, 2025 by CCTVT, Chinese state television, and devoted to “wargames”, these simulations of military confrontations that armies regularly carry out as training.

As is often the case with this type of war “game” in China, it was mainly about Taiwan… except that one passage shows a confrontation scenario in Latin America, where Chinese soldiers are looking at a map of an area around Cuba, which includes countries like Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela. “Blue” pawns – representing the enemy – were placed facing Chinese red pawns.

Wargames in Latin America

This is the first time that this theater of operations has been shown on Chinese television as a potential conflict zone for the army. Enough to give the impression that Chinese interests in this region, very far from Beijing's traditional Asian sphere of influence, deserve to be defended, including by force.

This is how this extract, which has been circulating more and more on social networks in recent days, was presented by certain publications after the “capture” of the Venezuelan leader, Nicolas Maduro, by the United States.

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It must be said that the fall of the Chavista leader in Venezuela, the country “in Latin America where China has invested the most”, represents a shock wave, underlines Amalendu Misra, specialist in international relations of the countries of the Global South at Lancaster.

Between 2000 and today, China has lent more than $100 billion to Venezuela. “It’s almost 39% of all the credits allocated by Beijing to this region,” insists Amalendu Misra.

Historically, it is “Venezuela, ideologically close to Beijing, which served as a gateway for China to begin to gain influence in Latin America at a time when the United States had a less aggressive policy in this region,” continues this expert.

In 2006, Hugo Chavez, then president of Venezuela, praised the agreements made with China, calling the country a “great wall against North American hegemony” in the region.

A mountain of unpaid debts

The good relations between Beijing and the Chavista regime survived the death of its founder in 2013. Ironically, one of the last people Nicolas Maduro saw a few hours before being captured by American forces was none other than China's special envoy to Venezuela, Qiu Xiaoqi, who came to reaffirm the solidity of ties between the two countries.

It is the fate of these 100 billion dollars that must worry the Chinese leaders from now on. A large part has already been repaid in raw materials. “Venezuela is an example of the Angola model, that is to say those countries to which China lends money to be paid in return in oil,” underlines Mario Esteban, director of the Center for East Asian Studies at the Autonomous University of Madrid, who has worked on relations between China and Latin America.

Also read: Venezuela: American intervention tests international law and Congress

If the precise data is not public, an estimate made by Beyond Horizon, a Belgian strategic research center, estimates that Caracas still owes more than 12 billion dollars to Beijing at the end of 2025.

“It is obvious that China will have to have a place at the negotiating table to know in what order Venezuela's creditors will be repaid, and how,” assures Günther Maihold, specialist in Latin America at the Free University of Berlin.

Donald Trump assured that American oil companies will be able to continue selling Venezuelan oil, including to China, when they have put the country's oil sector back on its feet. But “it is not certain that Beijing will want to pay American entities for its oil,” estimates Carlotta Rinaudo, China specialist at the International Team for the Study of Security (ITSS) Verona.

Beijing also had its sights set on untapped hydrocarbon resources and other raw materials such as gold. The Chinese giant China National Petroleum Corporation, for example, has established several joint ventures with local companies to explore the Venezuelan subsoil.

Resources which undoubtedly also whet Donald Trump's appetite. Venezuela has, in fact, the largest unexploited reserves of oil and gold in the world. The United States will probably have no desire to share this cake with its great Chinese rival and access to these riches will probably be the subject of “a fierce competition to come between the two countries”, estimates Carlotta Rinaudo.

Beyond these oil issues, Sino-Venezuelan cooperation has also enabled China to build infrastructure on site, leading to the installation of around 400,000 Chinese in Venezuela, mainly in the catering sector.

Limited room for maneuver

What will happen to all the Chinese technology deployed in infrastructure and these Chinese nationals? According to experts interviewed by France 24, Beijing can fear the worst because the operation led by the United States in Venezuela represents the most aggressive implementation of the Monroe Doctrine - namely, the American ambition to rid Latin America of all foreign influence - adapted to the Trumpian era. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also declared, after the capture of Nicolas Maduro, that he did not want a Russian, Iranian or Chinese presence in the country.

Venezuela risks, moreover, being only the beginning of Chinese misadventures in Latin America in the era of Donald Trump, the American president having started to put pressure on Mexico, Colombia and Cuba.

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Putting pressure on them can be “a way of encouraging them not to do business with China,” notes Mario Esteban. For Beijing, “this is especially important in the case of Mexico because Colombia and Cuba are economically insignificant for China,” adds this expert.

The Chinese “have invested in all Mexican ports and have built many new roads,” emphasizes Amalendu Misra. The Mexicans also buy “a lot of spare parts for the manufacture of cars and trucks, then exported to the United States”, specifies Günther Maihold.

Will China let this happen? The capture of Nicolas Maduro was a way for Washington to suggest to other countries that China cannot protect them if they opt for Beijing rather than Washington, according to experts interviewed by France 24. “The anti-aircraft defenses provided by China were of no use,” underlines Amalendu Misra. “It was also a failure of Chinese intelligence which apparently did not see anything coming,” adds Carlotta Rinaudo.

It must be said that the Chinese room for maneuver to oppose the intimidation made by Donald Trump is limited. The military option, suggested by the report on “wargames” broadcast on CCTV, “is not serious, it is too far for China”, assures Mario Esteban.

For him, “this report was mainly intended for a domestic audience in order to demonstrate to them that from now on China thought like a global military power capable of projecting itself everywhere, even in Latin America”.

“The most aggressive option for China to oppose the United States would be the use of cyberattacks,” estimates Mario Esteban. The most likely, in his opinion, is that Beijing will begin a vast diplomatic charm operation. “The Chinese know that this will awaken memories of the interventionism of the United States in Latin American countries. Beijing will increase the number of declarations insisting on respect for national sovereignty and international law,” summarizes Mario Esteban. Enough to intimidate Donald Trump?

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