Quick Take

  • Bitcoin slid to a two-month low as an Nvidia board probe and stalled Iran talks hit risk appetite.
  • Price sits under both its 50-day and 200-day averages, and momentum still favors sellers.
  • The 200-day line near $76,000 is the level bulls must reclaim to stop the slide.

Bitcoin fell to its weakest level since August on Monday as a forced unwinding of leveraged bets swept crypto markets. Most of the positions closed out were bullish wagers, caught off guard by a probe at Nvidia and a deadlock in U.S. talks with Iran.

Traders now want to know if the long squeeze has cleared out leverage or opened the door to deeper losses.

Nvidia Scandal and Iran Deadlock Trigger a Long Squeeze

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang acknowledged an affair with Alice Huang, a woman U.S. officials reportedly believe passed information to China. The chipmaker's board has opened an independent investigation. The news hit tech stocks and dragged risk appetite lower across markets.

Washington added a second blow. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said negotiations with Iran had stalled, calling Iranian demands "outrageous." That raised the odds of a longer geopolitical standoff.

Crypto traders were caught leaning the wrong way. CoinGlass data showed over $1.14 billion in leveraged positions wiped out in 24 hours. About 90% of those were longs, bets on higher prices.

Ether took the biggest hit, with roughly $500 million liquidated. Bitcoin saw $305.3 million in forced selling. It dipped to $73,650 on Monday, its lowest level since August.

Altcoins fell harder. ETH dropped 5.6% and XRP lost 6.3%, while SOL also slid. Retail sentiment on Bitcoin turned bearish on social platforms.

Bitcoin Trapped Beneath Both Major Averages

Bitcoin (BTC) daily price with the nearest support (green) and resistance (red). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin traded near $75,000 on the latest data, below both of its key moving averages. A moving average smooths out daily swings to show the underlying trend. When price sits under one, that average tends to act as a ceiling.

The 50-day average stands around $79,000, well overhead. The 200-day average, a gauge of the long-term trend, sits near $76,000. Price is just under that line. The shorter average still rides above the longer one. Traders call this a bearish stack, because each rally runs into two layers of selling.

Losses have built up steadily. Bitcoin is down about 10% over the past month. That pattern points to a grinding downtrend, without any single panic candle behind it.

Analyst Ted Pillows flagged the same weakness on a longer timeframe. He said Bitcoin just closed its fifth straight red week and fell below its 50-week moving average. Failure to win that level back, he said, could open a path toward $70,000.

The past 24 hours offered a pause. Bitcoin was flat on the day after the liquidation wave cleared out crowded longs. Buyers have not yet shown the strength to turn the trend.

Sellers Still Hold the Momentum Edge

Momentum readings back up the bearish picture. The daily RSI, a 0 to 100 gauge of momentum, sits at 36. That is weak, but it has not yet dropped into oversold territory below 30. In plain terms, sellers still have room to push before the market looks stretched.

The MACD, a tool that tracks shifts in momentum, is still below its signal line. That means downward pressure has not faded. Trend strength readings tell the same story, with a fresh trend taking shape and sellers in charge.

Buyers would need a clear shift in momentum before any recovery looks durable.

$76K Is the Ceiling Bulls Need to Crack

The nearest resistance lines up with the 200-day average, which makes that zone the first real test for buyers. A move through it would turn a long-term ceiling back into a floor.

MN Fund founder Michael van de Poppe set an even tighter trigger. He said a daily close above the round number where Bitcoin now trades could support a bounce. Without it, he warned, the market could see another deep decline this week. He added that a rebound in stocks could help crypto recover more strongly.

Clearing the 200-day line would not end the work. The next ceiling sits near $80K, close to the 50-day average. That second layer is where the bearish stack would face its real challenge.

The downside looks thinner. Support on the daily chart does not appear until about $63K, a wide gap. Pillows' downside target would likely serve as a waypoint on any slide toward that deeper floor.

Two Paths From the $76K Pivot

The 200-day line decides which of two outcomes plays out.

  • Bullish: Reclaiming the 200-day average on a closing basis would open a run toward the 50-day line. A stock market recovery after the Nvidia shock could tilt odds this way, echoing van de Poppe's view. A drop back under Monday's August-level low would cancel this setup.
  • Bearish: A rejection at the 200-day line, followed by a break below the two-month low, would put Pillows' downside target in play. A close back above the 50-day zone would invalidate it.

Bears Keep Control Until the 200-Day Is Reclaimed

The bias stays bearish while Bitcoin trades under its 200-day average.

Headlines remain the wild card. Any new turn in the Nvidia probe or the Iran talks could jolt prices quickly. With leverage still in the market, those swings can force fresh liquidations on either side.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.